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Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Korea’s heavy reliance on trade persists

Trade continued to surpass 100 percent of Korea’s gross national income for the third straight year, making the country vulnerable to external macroeconomic factors.

Trade in proportion to GNI, the total value of income generated by Korean nationals domestically and abroad, stood at 112.7 percent in 2012, similar to 112.9 percent in 2011, according to data by the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.

In 2010, the ratio reached over 105 percent.

This led to Korea becoming the world’s eighth-biggest trading economy, but also weak consumption, straining economic growth.

Analysts said it remaind to be seen whether the government’s fiscal stimulus and real estate measures would boost private spending, while the problem rested with slow income growth of the middle class.

Korea’s trade dependency rate hiked above the 100 percent mark in 2008 when the global financial crisis erupted on widespread investments in toxic subprime securities.

It temporarily dropped below 100 percent in 2009.

Analysts expect the country to achieve GDP growth of around 1 percent until the end of the second quarter of this year due to sluggish domestic consumption, despite a rise in exports. The Ministry of Strategy and Finance recently projected 2.3 percent growth this year, lower than the Bank of Korea’s 2.8 percent.

By Park Hyong-ki (hkp@heraldcorp.com)

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