Korea Herald survey shows Park
keeping lead but lagging behind in two-way races
Voters in their 40s and those living in Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province who are open to ideological standings and prefer practical economic measures are likely to decide the upcoming Dec. 19 presidential election, a survey commisioned by The Korea Herald showed Thursday.
The ruling Saenuri Party’s presidential candidate Rep. Park Geun-hye maintained her slim lead against her progressive rivals in a three-way race. But she lagged behind both Rep. Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party and independent Ahn Cheol-soo in hypothetical two-way contests.
These and other results were shown in the survey conducted by The Korea Herald and polling agency Realmeter on Oct. 2 on 1,000 respondents through random digit dialing. The survey has a 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
In two-way polls of 40-something respondents, the former chairwoman fell behind Moon by 17.8 percentage points with 38.9 to 56.7 percent. The veteran politician also came after Ahn by 18.7 percentage points with 38.7 percent to 57.4 percent.
Those in their 40s have been described as the key swing voters in various elections as they remain ideologically progressive but practically conservative in everyday life. The survey also showed the widest vote fluctuations among the age group compared to the more progressive 20s and 30s or the more conservative 50s and 60s.
Over 25 percent of the respondents in their 40s replied they were willing to change their support. While 24.6 percent of the 30-something respondents also said they may change their minds, their options were mainly among the two opposition candidates.
According to the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, 8.9 million in their 40s, 21.9 percent of the 40.5 million electorate, are eligible to vote in the yearend race.
Those living in the southern region encompassing Busan, South Gyeongsang Province and Ulsan ― also known as the “PK region” ― were also shown to be the key swing voters, unlike their original political allegiance to the conservative Saenuri Party. Both Moon and Ahn hail from the constituency.
In the region-based survey, Park failed to gain a majority by only collecting 43.8 percent. It was higher than Moon’s 20.1 percent and Ahn’s 24.8 percent, but much lower than the 65 percent support that had went to then-candidate Lee Hoi-chang in 2002.
“The direction of the support by those in their 40s and living in the PK region tend to coincide with the support ratings of each candidate. They are considered the powerful voting bloc,” said Lee Taek-soo, head of Realmeter.
Nationwide, both Ahn and Moon beat Park in a two-way race by 5.7 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points respectively. Ahn, in particular, enjoyed whooping 71.9 percent of support from those in their 30s, and a comfortable lead in Seoul with 54 percent and Gyeonggi and Incheon region with 55.2 percent against Park.
Park, however, maintained her sturdy lead in a three-candidate race, by earning 37.4 percent compared to Ahn’s 30.1 percent and Moon’s 22.6 percent.
Alarmed by her teetering popularity, Park is expected to complete her election committee lineup by naming a prominent figure as the chairman by early next week, and targeting those in their 20s, 30s and 40s as well as the PK region. On Thursday, Park flew down to Busan and Ulsan to launch her regional campaign committee.
To a question on who should become a single opposition candidate, 40.1 percent picked Ahn while 38.7 percent chose Moon in the tight competition. Moon is expected to notch up his campaign using his partisan support as a major strength, while Ahn is to continue courting the Jeolla Province voters, the political stronghold of the opposition forces, for the time being.
The survey, meanwhile, also showed that nine out of 10 already decided who they will vote for. The number of non-respondents to a hypothetical one-on-one race between Park and a single opposition candidate also decreased largely to around 5 percent.
Of the respondents, 77 percent also said they did not change their choice despite various allegations surrounding each candidate over the past couple of weeks.
By candidate, Park showed the sturdiest support base with 83.5 percent of her supporters saying they have not changed their mind and will not do so.
For Ahn, on the other hand, 64.2 percent of his supporters said they will continue upholding Ahn, while 60 percent of Moon’s supporters said they will remain committed.
By analyzing the respondents’ types, Park was seen to be popular among those in their 50s and 60s and operating their own businesses. She also enjoyed high 41 percent of support among women. Moon on the other hand was popular among 40-something office workers, while Ahn was favored by students and those in their 20s and 30s with white-collar jobs.
In case of a Moon-Ahn alliance, 41.8 percent of the respondents said they will support them regardless of who becomes the single candidate.
Among the self-described non-partisan voters, 42.6 percent said they will support whoever comes out from the alliance, while 16.4 percent answered they would rather pick Park, while 6.4 percent said they will abstain.
By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.com)
Voters in their 40s and those living in Busan, Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province who are open to ideological standings and prefer practical economic measures are likely to decide the upcoming Dec. 19 presidential election, a survey commisioned by The Korea Herald showed Thursday.
The ruling Saenuri Party’s presidential candidate Rep. Park Geun-hye maintained her slim lead against her progressive rivals in a three-way race. But she lagged behind both Rep. Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party and independent Ahn Cheol-soo in hypothetical two-way contests.
These and other results were shown in the survey conducted by The Korea Herald and polling agency Realmeter on Oct. 2 on 1,000 respondents through random digit dialing. The survey has a 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
In two-way polls of 40-something respondents, the former chairwoman fell behind Moon by 17.8 percentage points with 38.9 to 56.7 percent. The veteran politician also came after Ahn by 18.7 percentage points with 38.7 percent to 57.4 percent.
Those in their 40s have been described as the key swing voters in various elections as they remain ideologically progressive but practically conservative in everyday life. The survey also showed the widest vote fluctuations among the age group compared to the more progressive 20s and 30s or the more conservative 50s and 60s.
Over 25 percent of the respondents in their 40s replied they were willing to change their support. While 24.6 percent of the 30-something respondents also said they may change their minds, their options were mainly among the two opposition candidates.
According to the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, 8.9 million in their 40s, 21.9 percent of the 40.5 million electorate, are eligible to vote in the yearend race.
Those living in the southern region encompassing Busan, South Gyeongsang Province and Ulsan ― also known as the “PK region” ― were also shown to be the key swing voters, unlike their original political allegiance to the conservative Saenuri Party. Both Moon and Ahn hail from the constituency.
In the region-based survey, Park failed to gain a majority by only collecting 43.8 percent. It was higher than Moon’s 20.1 percent and Ahn’s 24.8 percent, but much lower than the 65 percent support that had went to then-candidate Lee Hoi-chang in 2002.
“The direction of the support by those in their 40s and living in the PK region tend to coincide with the support ratings of each candidate. They are considered the powerful voting bloc,” said Lee Taek-soo, head of Realmeter.
Nationwide, both Ahn and Moon beat Park in a two-way race by 5.7 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points respectively. Ahn, in particular, enjoyed whooping 71.9 percent of support from those in their 30s, and a comfortable lead in Seoul with 54 percent and Gyeonggi and Incheon region with 55.2 percent against Park.
Park, however, maintained her sturdy lead in a three-candidate race, by earning 37.4 percent compared to Ahn’s 30.1 percent and Moon’s 22.6 percent.
Alarmed by her teetering popularity, Park is expected to complete her election committee lineup by naming a prominent figure as the chairman by early next week, and targeting those in their 20s, 30s and 40s as well as the PK region. On Thursday, Park flew down to Busan and Ulsan to launch her regional campaign committee.
To a question on who should become a single opposition candidate, 40.1 percent picked Ahn while 38.7 percent chose Moon in the tight competition. Moon is expected to notch up his campaign using his partisan support as a major strength, while Ahn is to continue courting the Jeolla Province voters, the political stronghold of the opposition forces, for the time being.
The survey, meanwhile, also showed that nine out of 10 already decided who they will vote for. The number of non-respondents to a hypothetical one-on-one race between Park and a single opposition candidate also decreased largely to around 5 percent.
Of the respondents, 77 percent also said they did not change their choice despite various allegations surrounding each candidate over the past couple of weeks.
By candidate, Park showed the sturdiest support base with 83.5 percent of her supporters saying they have not changed their mind and will not do so.
For Ahn, on the other hand, 64.2 percent of his supporters said they will continue upholding Ahn, while 60 percent of Moon’s supporters said they will remain committed.
By analyzing the respondents’ types, Park was seen to be popular among those in their 50s and 60s and operating their own businesses. She also enjoyed high 41 percent of support among women. Moon on the other hand was popular among 40-something office workers, while Ahn was favored by students and those in their 20s and 30s with white-collar jobs.
In case of a Moon-Ahn alliance, 41.8 percent of the respondents said they will support them regardless of who becomes the single candidate.
Among the self-described non-partisan voters, 42.6 percent said they will support whoever comes out from the alliance, while 16.4 percent answered they would rather pick Park, while 6.4 percent said they will abstain.
By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.com)
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